In an increasingly complex and fast-evolving global landscape, nations must anticipate and prepare for future technological advancements to remain competitive and ensure sustain-able development.

One of the most effective tools in strategic foresight is the ‘Delphi’ method. This structured, interactive forecasting technique leverages expert opinions to predict future technological trends and inform national planning.

The Delphi method involves multiple rounds of surveys where experts provide insights, receive feedback, and refine their opinions until a consensus emerges. The key advantage of the Delphi method in foresight is its ability to incorporate diverse perspectives, minimise bias and build a shared vision for future technological developments. When applied to national planning, Delphi-type Foresight helps policymakers identify emerging technologies, assess their socio-economic impact, and formulate long-term strategies. Countries use this approach to prioritise research funding, guide industrial policies and enhance their innovation ecosystems.

The participation of a diverse panel of experts from academia, industry and government in carrying out this exercise ensures a comprehensive perspective on future technological developments. Experts participate in multiple rounds of anonymous surveys, refining their predictions based on the aggregated responses. Possible future scenarios are constructed based on expert insights, providing a structured framework for decision-making. The foresight results are synthesised into national strategies, influencing research priorities, infrastructure development and regulatory frameworks.

Japan has been a global leader in using the Delphi method for foresight. The country’s Science and Technology Agency (STA) has conducted Delphi surveys every five years since the 1970s to guide its national research and development (R&D) priorities. These foresight exercises have significantly influenced Japan’s policies on advanced manufacturing, robotics, and information technology. For example, the foresight studies helped Japan identify robotics as a key technological frontier. As a result, the government heavily invested in robotics research, leading to Japan’s dominance in industrial automation and humanoid robotics, such as Honda’s ASIMO and SoftBank’s Pepper.

Germany too has successfully integrated the Delphi method into its strategic foresight programs, particularly through its BMBF Foresight Process. The process, managed by the country’s Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), has helped shape Germany’s national innovation strategy by identifying key technologies with high economic and social potential. One notable success of this foresight exercise was the emphasis on renewable energy technologies. Expert consensus from Delphi studies in the early 2000s led to significant policy shifts, resulting in the Energiewende (Energy Transition) strategy which helped Germany become a global leader in solar and wind energy.

South Korea’s remarkable economic transformation from a developing nation to a technology powerhouse has been strongly influenced by its foresight-based policies. The Korean government, through the Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP), has used Delphi Foresight to guide its strategic R&D investments. A critical outcome of this foresight process was the prioritisation of semiconductor technology in the 1980s and 1990s. Based on expert insights, South Korea invested heavily in semiconductor research and production, leading to the emergence of global giants like Samsung and SK Hynix. Today, South Korea is a world leader in semiconductor manufacturing.

Singapore is another country that has successfully used Delphi-type foresight in its national planning. The city-state has established foresight initiatives under the government’s Research, Innovation, and Enterprise (RIE) plans. The Agency for Science, Technology, and Research (A*STAR) has played a crucial role in identifying emerging technologies that align with Singapore’s long-term economic goals. One of the major successes of these foresight exercises was the early investment in fintech and artificial intelligence, positioning Singapore as a global financial technology hub.

Turkey has also embraced foresight methodologies to drive innovation and economic development. The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) has conducted multiple Delphi-based foresight studies to guide the nation’s technological roadmap. A key success has been Turkey’s investment in defence technology and aerospace industries, where the country has developed indigenous drone technology, strengthening its national security and export potential. Foresight exercises have also helped Turkey prioritise renewable energy projects, leading to significant advancements in solar and wind energy sectors.

China has increasingly adopted Delphi-type foresight techniques as part of its broader national planning initiatives, particularly in its Five-Year Plans. The Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Ministry of Science and Technology conduct extensive foresight studies to shape China’s innovation agenda. One of the significant foresight-driven successes has been China’s rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI). Delphi-based studies identified AI as a key driver of future economic growth, leading to the launch of the ‘Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan’ in 2017.

The UK government has extensively used foresight techniques, including the Delphi method, through initiatives such as the UK Government Office for Science’s Foresight Programme. This approach has been instrumental in shaping policies on emerging technologies such as biotechnology, cybersecurity, and digital transformation. A notable success story is the foresight-driven emphasis on biotechnology and life sciences. Early identification of genomics and personalised medicine as high-impact fields led to significant government and private sector investments. The UK is now a leader in genomic medicine, with initiatives like the 100,000 Genomes Project paving the way for advancements in personalised healthcare.

Pakistan, too, can benefit significantly from adopting Delphi-type Foresight in its national planning. Such an exercise was conducted under my supervision during 2005/2006 in which thousands of experts from academia, government and private sector participated. The resulting 330-page document that identified priority areas in several key sectors was approved by the cabinet in 2007 but was unfortunately never implemented.

Given its challenges in economic stability, energy security and technological advancement, Pakistan should prioritise fields such as renewable energy, digital transformation and advanced manufacturing. By leveraging foresight exercises, the government can identify emerging industries and direct investment towards high-impact sectors such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and fintech.

Strengthening research institutions, fostering industry-academia collaborations and creating policies that encourage innovation will be critical. Infrastructure development in science and technology parks, skill-building in STEM fields and incentives for startups can position Pakistan as a competitive player in the global knowledge economy. It is time to develop a carefully tailored strategy that relies on our real wealth — our children — and prioritises education, science, technology and entrepreneurship for sustainable socio-economic development.

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