The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) by India following the Pahalgam terror attack marks a critical escalation in Indo-Pakistani tensions, with dire regional consequences that could potentially spiral into conflict. The treaty, which had governed water-sharing of the Indus River system since 1960, allocated 80 per cent of the basin’s water to Pakistan, sustaining its agriculture, hydropower, and urban needs.

Pakistan’s economy and food security hinge on the Indus system, which irrigates 90 per cent of its cultivated land and supports 237 million people. The suspension jeopardises water flows from the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab), threatening crop collapses, urban water shortages, and hydropower deficits. With only 10 per cent water storage capacity (via dams like Tarbela and Mangla), Pakistan faces acute vulnerability to reduced flows, risking food insecurity for millions and economic destabilisation. The agricultural sector, contributing 23 per cent to GDP and employing 68 per cent of rural workers, could collapse, triggering rural unemployment, migration, and civil unrest.

India’s move grants it unilateral control over western rivers, enabling accelerated construction of dam projects (Ratle, Pakal Dul) and potential water diversion. Already water-stressed and politically fragile, Pakistan may retaliate through diplomatic channels (World Bank arbitration). A prolonged suspension could also push Pakistan toward desperation, incentivising military action to secure water resources or retaliate against Indian projects. With both nations nuclear-armed and Kashmir tensions unresolved, water scarcity could act as a catalyst for broader conflict.

Pakistan’s water governance has remained marred by fragmented institutions, a lack of infrastructure development, and an inadequate response to climate change. In contrast, India has steadily pursued a policy of aggressive water infrastructure expansion. Since independence, India has built over 5,000 large dams and thousands of smaller structures, creating extensive water storage capacity.

The construction of multipurpose dams such as Bhakra, Sardar Sarovar, and Tehri has significantly enhanced their ability to manage seasonal variability, support irrigation, generate hydropower and mitigate floods. India has also effectively promoted watershed development programmes and decentralised water governance. Community-driven projects in states like Maharashtra and Rajasthan have successfully rejuvenated aquifers and improved agricultural productivity through rainwater harvesting, check dams and afforestation.

Pakistan inherited an extensive canal irrigation system from British colonial rule, which initially served the country well. However, this system has become outdated and suffers from massive losses due to seepage and poor maintenance. The National Water Policy (NWP) was introduced only in 2018, a surprisingly late initiative given the escalating water challenges over prior decades. However, even the NWP lacks enforceable mechanisms, specific targets and a robust implementation framework.

Climate change is worsening the situation. Pakistan is among the most vulnerable countries in the world, frequently affected by glacial melt, erratic monsoons and shifting weather patterns. These changes have brought about frequent floods and droughts, disrupted agricultural cycles, and intensified water stress. At the same time, desertification continues to spread, especially in Tharparkar, Cholistan, and parts of Balochistan, due to unsustainable land use and poor water management.

In 1951, Pakistan's per capita water availability was approximately 5,260 cubic meters per year. By 2006, this figure had declined to about 1,100 cubic meters per year, marking a significant reduction over the decades, and today it is estimated to be less than 1000 cubic meters per year. The construction of major dams like Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma occurred decades ago, and since then, no significant additions to water storage capacity have been made, despite the increasing demand. In terms of global rankings, Pakistan is among the countries with the lowest per capita renewable water resources.

Institutional weaknesses have further exacerbated the crisis. Water management in Pakistan is fragmented among federal, provincial, and local governments, leading to poor coordination and implementation. Inter-provincial disputes, especially between Punjab and Sindh, over Indus River allocations have prevented consensus on national water planning. Corruption, lack of technical expertise, and a top-down approach have rendered many donor-funded projects ineffective.

While the dispute caused by India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty may take years to resolve, Pakistan must enact comprehensive and forward-looking reforms to address the impending water crisis. First, a centralised National Water Authority should be established to coordinate policy across provinces and sectors. Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) should be implemented at the river basin level to ensure equitable and sustainable distribution.

Second, infrastructure development must become a national priority. Pakistan should commit to building both large reservoirs and thousands of small dams, particularly in rain-fed areas, to improve water availability. Lessons from India’s pragmatic approach to infrastructure development should guide Pakistan’s efforts.

Third, the government must adopt and promote technological innovations. Drip and sprinkler irrigation should be subsidised and widely adopted to reduce agricultural water waste. Investment in desalination and wastewater treatment should be prioritised, particularly for urban and industrial use. A national digital water monitoring system can enhance transparency and resource planning.

Fourth, legal and economic instruments need strengthening. The 2018 NWP must be revised to include measurable targets, clear timelines, and accountability mechanisms. Groundwater extraction should be regulated, and tiered pricing should be introduced to discourage waste and ensure affordability for the poor. A water trading system could optimise resource use among sectors and regions.

Fifth, community participation and public education must be emphasised. Water literacy campaigns, school curricula, and local stakeholder engagement can foster a culture of conservation and collective responsibility. Empowering communities to manage local water systems – as India has successfully done – can improve accountability and long-term viability.

Finally, climate resilience must be built into all water planning. Pakistan must invest in climate-resilient crops, improve early warning systems for extreme weather events, and upgrade flood management infrastructure. Deforestation must be reversed through afforestation drives supporting water retention and soil health.

India seems to have carefully planned the timing of the false-flag operation in Pahalgam to benefit from these weaknesses.

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