The underlying motive of the Middle East war seems to have four dimensions. The first is to weaken Iran, which was seen by Israel as the biggest threat to its Zionist expansionist policies. The second is to alter the foundations of the world energy and financial systems: the Middle East and Persian Gulf should cease to be major sources of oil so the US could become the dominant supplier. The third aspect, a consequence of the second motive, is to control China’s meteoric industrial rise by strangling its oil supplies from the Middle East and making it dependent on US oil.

The fourth is to offset the collapsing US dollar, driven by the US’s rising national debt of almost $41 trillion. Taking over Venezuelan oil seems to be part of the same US strategy. The ongoing struggle over Bab al-Mandab completes the encirclement. The blockage of oil supplies through Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab could paralyse the Gulf’s main oil exits and drive buyers towards American suppliers. That is precisely how a clever energy strategy would work to US advantage.

The results are already becoming evident. American oil exports have surged. US crude shipments reached a record 5.7 million barrels per day in May as Asian and European buyers searched for alternatives. American exports of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other clean petroleum products had already reached a record 3.11 million barrels per day in March, while shipments to Asia more than doubled within one month. The geography of war has rapidly changed the geography of world trade. The US has now uniquely positioned itself to exploit this change. It is the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas. The US Energy Information Administration expects crude production to average a record 13.8 million barrels per day in 2026. LNG exports are forecast to rise from 15.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 17.4 billion in 2026.

China is already feeling that pressure. On September 14, China Gas signed a 20-year agreement with the US producer Venture Global. Its long-term American LNG commitments now total 2.5 million tonnes annually. The agreement was reached despite tariffs and strategic hostility. According to Kpler data reported by Reuters, the Middle East supplied about 52 per cent of China’s crude-oil imports in 2025 -- some 1.9 billion barrels. By May 2026, that share had fallen to only 31 per cent.

These signs point to a major industrial system struggling to replace its traditional energy lifeline. The US has established itself as the emergency supplier to which the market turns when other routes fail. Venezuela adds another crucial dimension. It possesses the world’s largest proven petroleum reserves. Oil that once flowed overwhelmingly from Venezuela towards China is increasingly entering a commercial system shaped by Washington. Venezuelan crude imports into the US Gulf Coast reached a record 608,000 barrels per day in July.

Behind this energy offensive stands an even larger American vulnerability: the weakening foundations of world dollar supremacy. The dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve and trading currency, but its position has gradually eroded as China, Russia and other states conduct more trade in national currencies and accumulate gold. IMF data placed the dollar at about 57 per cent of disclosed global foreign-exchange reserves in early 2026, far below its position around the beginning of this century.

The decline is gradual, but for Washington, gradual erosion is strategically dangerous. The danger is magnified by America’s crushing national debt. The gross federal debt is already approaching $41 trillion. It has increased by approximately $2.67 trillion in only one year. Interest payments on it now exceed defence expenditure and Medicare costs, while the Congressional Budget Office projects a federal deficit of about $1.9 trillion for 2026.

From this perspective, domination of world energy seems part of a deliberate grand strategy to compensate for the dollar’s declining relative importance. The traditional petrodollar obliged oil-importing nations to acquire dollars because international petroleum was largely priced and settled in that currency. If this arrangement is weakening, Washington has a powerful incentive to replace it with something stronger: an ‘e-dollar’ backed by American control over energy supply, export terminals, insurance, finance, and access to major reserves. Energy dependence on the US would reinforce dollar demand and sustain Treasury debt purchases; foreign financing would help Washington counter a national liability approaching $41 trillion. The old map of world oil is being torn up in real time. A new map places Washington at the centre. Each month of war strengthens this structure.

With Iran weakened, the next target for Israel would be to weaken Turkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. The recent defence pact among these countries needs to be seen from that perspective. What should Pakistan’s strategy be in light of this rapidly changing global scenario? It is now recognised that the nature of warfare has dramatically changed in recent years. Wars are no longer won and lost on battlefields but in laboratories. Countries strong in science and technology control strategic developments in fields such as artificial intelligence, drone warfare, stealth technologies and robotics.

Pakistan, through consistent, myopic government policies, has neglected quality education and science and is now ranked among the weakest in the world in terms of its human development index. Its exports have fallen to about $30 billion. The country needs to wake up to these realities.

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